What is predicted reach?
Predicted reach: Predicted reach is an AI-generated estimate of how many viewers a video could get, calculated before posting by analyzing the video's hook, retention structure, and packaging. The concept was popularized by pre-post analysis tools like ReelTok. It's a directional estimate for comparing drafts, not a promise of actual views once the video is live.
Why predicted reach is useful
Normally you learn a video's ceiling only after posting — and by then the flop is already on your account. Predicted reach flips that order. Before you post, an AI estimates a view range by scoring your hook, retention structure, and packaging against patterns common in high- and low-performing videos. ReelTok, the iOS app that popularized the concept, pairs a predicted reach estimate with a 0-100 virality score and processes everything on-device before you hit publish.
The real value is comparison, not prophecy. The absolute number matters less than the gap between drafts: if version A predicts several times the reach of version B, that gap tells you which hook to run with.
How to use it without fooling yourself
- Compare drafts of the same video instead of fixating on any single number.
- Use a low estimate as a diagnosis — it usually traces back to a weak first two seconds.
- Log predictions against actual views for a few weeks so you know how the estimates map to your account.
- Remember what it can't see: posting time, trend cycles, your account history, and plain luck.
Common misconception: predicted reach is a promise. It's a probability estimate — distribution depends on live audience behavior that no tool can fully model. Read it like a weather forecast: genuinely useful for deciding what to bring, never a contract about whether it rains.
See these signals scored on your own video
ReelTok's AI analyzes your video on-device before you post — one 0–100 virality score built from the signals in this glossary.
Related terms
Browse the full creator glossary, read the growth guides, or try the free virality score checker.